The most important factor about large speculative funds is that they tend to be trend followers and aggressors in moving markets. Commercial traders tend to be the shock absorber on the other side of the speculative trade. Commercials tend to be value buyers. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) provides a window into the market activity of both sides of the market. If we want to predict future pricing behavior using COT data, we should
